Sunday, July 3, 2011

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  • vrkgali
    08-12 09:57 AM
    Instructions: Just read the sentence straight through quickly without really thinking about it.

    Acocdrnig to an elgnsih unviesitry sutdy the oredr of letetrs in a wrod dosen't mttaer, the olny thnig thta's iopmrantt is that the frsit and lsat ltteer of eevry word is in the crcreot ptoision. The rset can be jmbueld and one is stlil able to raed the txet wiohtut dclftfuiiy.

    Amazing, isn't it?

    yse ,tahts hwo I awlays tyep in chat windwo s




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  • Raju
    05-24 12:21 PM
    If you go through the transcripts of his shows over the last 4-5 years, he is stauncly against everything foriegn, period. He hates H1-Bs, absolutely hates indian call centers , hates cheap chinese goods, hates illegal aliens ... he is not just anti-immigrant, he is xenophobic.
    The reason he is so popular is because he appeals to populist sentiments .. its the easiest thing in the world to blame foreigners when the economy is bad and believe everything will be hunky-dory if they are kicked out.


    I used to watch his show for 2 yrs. This is what exactly he wants to do. I agree 200% to the above passage. He wants to build walls for everything, technolgy, foriegn goods and Immigrants(legal and illegel). I am surprised that he is a harvard graduate. He want to send 15 mil illegals out, which is 10% of the whole work force. The current unemployment in this coutry is under 5% which the best in the world. How is he going to fill the jobs that were left behind by the illegals...




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  • rockstart
    07-14 02:07 PM
    See if things spill horizontally or vertically Eb3(I) is still last in the chain. So many people have demonstrated it. All these days Eb3 (ROW) was gaining from spill over. Now CIS feels that Eb2 takes preference over Eb3 ( which for practical purpose is ROW and not India/ China) so that is why Eb2 is moving forward, else like eb3 eb2 India was also struck. What you are asking is complete re-working of spill over rules. That is not what CIS can do on its own. The rule was always clear Eb1 spill goes to Eb2 and then to Eb2 if some one needs to complain it should be Eb2 who did not get these numbers much earlier.

    * When was it unclear?
    * Why did it take so long for USCIS to see that the law was unclear?
    * What caused USCIS to realize that the law was unclear?
    * What caused them to change their interpretation?
    * How did USCIS use up all of EB2-I numbers in the very first quarter? (Very illegal thing to do)

    Come on, dont be so picky. You know what I mean when I said USCIS changed the law. Dont argue on syntax.




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  • validIV
    06-05 11:43 AM
    Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.

    When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.

    30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.


    here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
    this is from an article
    ------------------------------------
    Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?

    First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.

    Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.

    * Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
    * New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
    * People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.

    This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.

    I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.

    Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.



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  • xlr8r
    04-09 08:35 AM
    What can we do to deep-six this bill?

    Need direction here!




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  • panky72
    08-07 09:56 PM
    BLONDE LOGIC

    Two blondes living in Oklahoma were sitting on a bench talking, and one blonde says to the other, 'Which do you think is farther away... Florida or the moon?' The other blonde turns and says 'Helloooooooooo, can you see Florida ?????'

    SPEEDING TICKET

    A police officer stops a blonde for speeding and asks her very nicely if he could see her license.She replied in a huff, 'I wish you guys would get your act together. Just yesterday you take away my license and then today you expect me to show it to you!'

    RIVER WALK

    There's this blonde out for a walk. She comes to a river and sees another blonde on the opposite bank. 'Yoo-hoo!' she shouts, 'How can I get to the other side?' The second blonde looks up the river then down the river and shouts back, 'You ARE on the other side.'

    AT THE DOCTOR'S OFFICE

    A gorgeous young redhead goes into the doctor's office and said that her body hurt wherever she touched it. 'Impossible!' says the doctor. 'Show me.' The redhead took her finger, pushed on her left shoulder and screamed, then she pushed her elbow and screamed even more. She pushed her knee and screamed; likewise she pushed her ankle and screamed. Everywhere she touched made her scream. The doctor said, 'You're not really a redhead, are you? 'Well, no' she said, 'I'm actually a blonde.' 'I thought so,' the doctor said. 'Your finger is broken.'

    KNITTING

    A highway patrolman pulled alongside a speeding car on the freeway. Glancing at the car, he was astounded to see that the blonde behind the wheel was knitting! Realizing that she was oblivious to his flashing lights and siren, the trooper cranked down his window, turned on his bullhorn and yelled, 'PULL OVER!' 'NO!' the blonde yelled back, 'IT'S A SCARF!'

    BLONDE ON THE SUN

    A Russian, an American, and a Blonde were talking one day. The Russian said, 'We were the first in space!' The American said, 'We were the first on the moon!' The Blonde said, 'So what? We're going to be the first on the sun!' The Russian and the American looked at each other and shook their heads. 'You can't land on the sun, you idiot! You'll burn up!' said the Russian. To which the Blonde replied, 'We're not stupid, you know. We're going at night!'

    FINALLY, THE BLONDE JOKE TO END ALL BLONDE JOKES!

    A girl was visiting her blonde friend, who had acquired two new dogs, and asked her what their names were. The blonde responded by saying that one was named Rolex and one was named Timex. Her friend said, 'Whoever heard of someone naming dogs like that?' 'HELLLOOOOOOO......,' answered the blond. 'They're watch dogs!'



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  • Marphad
    12-17 02:37 PM
    Marphad,

    But none of their postings (jaspreetsinghgandhi & tabletpc) had your kind of religious-politics in it!

    I remember your religious quotes in "485 Approved" thread.

    Guys, Mumbai attack wounds are still unhealed and morons like Antulay is trying to divert the attention is what I am talking about.




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  • BharatPremi
    07-14 09:14 AM
    Why is EB3 India unhappy?

    The impression I am getting from all posts is that EB3 is unhappy because EB2 got 2 year advancement in dates. EB3 is unhappy not because of their own retrogression but because someone else is happy being current.

    The reason is not justified. EB3 should be unhappy for its own retrogression and not because someone else in EB2 is current. I see a lot of EB3India guys waking up now to the reality and protesting just because EB2 is getting greencads. This approach is wrong. Where were all of you all these months when IV was asking letters for admin fixes? A lot of us were busy enjoying our EADs and suddenly everyone is woken up. Where were all these guys when visa bulletin came every month and dates did not move?

    I would support an action item for us EB3 folks only when it is based on the genuine reasons of EB retrogression. If it is based on the reason of EB2 getting greencards and EB3 not getting greencards, it is a wrong immature reason and USCIS or any authority capable of decision making will not like it.

    Do you have any idea what are you talking about and why are you talking about? In which year you entered into this GC hell queue? I would suggest you to go through last 8 years of EB category happenings and then you would realize why EB3-India are frustrated....I would generally write but before that I would think first and then write. Best Luck.



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  • unseenguy
    06-26 05:26 PM
    Here is my strategy:

    Keep an eye on the interest rates, if they are going to cross, 6.5% lock them in immediately and monitor for 90 days.

    1) Wait for home prices to fall further or not increase (After the economic stimulus timeline has passed), sales may slump again
    2) Use this time to stay in a modest short term apartment/condo/townhome and save 1500 a month to build a large downpayment when you get GC.
    3) Use large downpayment to lower your monthly payment.
    4) use lowered monthly payments to make additional payments towards your principal thus further reducing the payments on mortgage interest.

    Hence in 2-3 years you can go for a bigger house with lower mortgage and quicker payoff since prices are not rising now.




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  • yagw
    08-20 02:53 AM
    Mr. X going to airport with his friend for the first time...

    Mr. X : What is that flight, taking off?
    Friend: Boeing 747

    The next day he went with his another friend and saw the same flight landing... then says to his friend....

    "I know the name of the flight... 'Vanding' 747!"


    Translation: Bo ~= Go
    Vandu ~= Come



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  • nogc_noproblem
    08-25 04:43 PM
    What men say and what they actually mean . . .

    � "I'M GOING FISHING" Means: "I'm going to drink myself dangerously stupid, and stand by a stream with a stick in my hand, while the fish swim by in complete safety."
    � "YES, DEAR..." Means: Absolutely nothing. It's a conditioned response.
    � "IT WOULD TAKE TOO LONG TO EXPLAIN" Means: "I have no idea how it works."
    � "TAKE A BREAK HONEY, YOU'RE WORKING TOO HARD". Means: "I can't hear the game over the vacuum cleaner."
    � "THAT'S INTERESTING, DEAR." Means: "Are you still talking?"
    � "I WAS JUST THINKING ABOUT YOU, AND GOT YOU THESE ROSES". Means: "The girl selling them on the corner was a real babe."
    � "WHAT DID I DO THIS TIME?" Means: "What did you catch me at?"
    � "I HEARD YOU." Means: "I haven't the foggiest clue what you just said, and am hoping desperately that I can fake it well enough so that you don't spend the next 3 days yelling at me."
    � "YOU KNOW I COULD NEVER LOVE ANYONE ELSE." Means: "I am used to the way you yell at me, and realize it could be worse."
    � "YOU LOOK TERRIFIC." Means: "Please don't try on one more outfit, I'm starving."
    � "WE SHARE THE HOUSEWORK." Means: "I make the messes, she cleans them up."




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  • Refugee_New
    01-06 05:39 PM
    Modi is the need of the hour andnot Gandhi....Grow up man.

    Exactly. Hamas was the need of the hour for Palestinians and that why they choose their government. We may call them terrorists, but they are their legitimate government. People always chose leaders who fight for their right. Now you brand them terrorist and that will give you free hand to kill them and their people. Thats what happening. Isreal doesn't want anyone to stand up to their aggression. At the end, its poor people and children who get killed.



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  • anadimisra
    02-12 03:20 PM
    There was another thread calling Indians "Cheap".

    "Indian Origin People" is a very broad category of people and only being from the same community does not give you any right to defame the whole community.



    IT HAPPENS ONLY in INDIA(N) ORIGIN PEOPLE




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  • addsf345
    12-18 05:06 PM
    Originally Posted by razis123
    be it Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan Somalia,Darfur,Chechnya, Kashmir, Gujarat... everywhere muslims are killed for being muslims...noone goes to cuba,srilanka,north korea,zimbawe or whereever for watever reason...just imagine God forbid someone comes into your house, occupies it, kills your family, your brothers and sisters in front of you and kicks you out of your home and you are seeing no hope of justice... you wont stand outside your home sending flowers like munna bhai's gandhigiri.. trust me you will become a terrorist.

    by your explanation, what should hindus in india do? they were attacked, temples destroyed, forcefully converted, killed, lost land to islamic republics like pakistand and bangladesh??? Please read this on wikipedia...Thankfully not whole world thinks like you do.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_conquest_in_the_Indian_subcontinent

    An estimate of the number of people killed, based on the Muslim chronicles and demographic calculations, was done by K.S. Lal in his book Growth of Muslim Population in Medieval India, who claimed that between 1000 CE and 1500 CE, the population of Hindus decreased by 80 million. His work has come under criticism by historians such as Simon Digby (School of Oriental and African Studies) and the Marxist historian Irfan Habib for its agenda and lack of accurate data in pre-census times. Lal has responded to these criticisms in later works. Historians such as Will Durant contend that Islam spread through violence.[5][6] Sir Jadunath Sarkar contends that that several Muslim invaders were waging a systematic jihad against Hindus in India to the effect that "Every device short of massacre in cold blood was resorted to in order to convert heathen subjects."[7] In particular the records kept by al-Utbi, Mahmud al-Ghazni's secretary, in the Tarikh-i-Yamini document several episodes of bloody military campaigns.[citation needed] Hindus who converted to Islam however were not completely immune to persecution due to the Caste system among South Asian Muslims in India established by Ziauddin al-Barani in the Fatawa-i Jahandari.[8], where they were regarded as an "Ajlaf" caste and subjected to discrimination by the "Ashraf" castes[9].



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  • irock
    07-14 02:17 PM
    couldn't say it better.

    About same time last year we had different "schism" on these forums: July 2007 filers with approved labor who could file their 485s Vs those with older PDs but unfortunately stuck in BECs. Most of Eb3s who are outraged today are July 2007 filers. Any guesses how many of them requested BEC victims back then "to be happy" for others and not rock the boat?

    The unfortunate fact is that although everyone here is convinced of their moral high ground it is nothing more than self-preservation at the end. If it was just that it would still be fine (human nature) but still more unfortunate is the fact that we as a group never get this riled up - except few notable and respected exceptions - as long as everyone is equally miserable. Only if we had so much participation in all action items (admin fixes, house bills, funding drive etc.)...




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  • Macaca
    03-06 09:03 PM
    Labor Certification for the Permanent Employment of Aliens in the United States; Implementation of New System; Final Rule (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Final_Rule_12-27-04_FR.pdf) 20 CFR Parts 655 and 656 | Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, December 27, 2004
    U.S. Immigration Policy on Permanent Admissions (http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/2007,0122-crs.pdf), CRS Report for Congress, Updated December 13, 2006
    U.S. Immigration Policy on Permanent Admissions (http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/2006,0425-crs.pdf), Updated April 17, 2006
    Immigration Policy in the United States (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/70xx/doc7051/02-28-Immigration.pdf) CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, February 2006
    CRS Reports (http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/news/crs.shtm)
    Immigration through Employment (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=84096138f898d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=4f719c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)
    EMPLOYMENT-BASED PERMANENT RESIDENCE (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=141&d=1184798383)
    EXTRAORDINARY, EXCEPTIONAL AND OUTSTANDING: What does it take to make it to the top? (http://www.hammondlawfirm.com/monthly/october_featured_article.pdf) by Sherry L. Neal, Attorney
    Damaris Del Valle, Law Clerk
    Legal Immigrants: waiting forever (http://www.competeamerica.org/resource/h1b_glance/NFAP_Study.pdf)
    TITLE 22 OF CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS (22 CFR): Chapter I -- DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (IMMIGRATION AND NATURALIZATION)(Amended 2/28/03; 68 FR 9824 ) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/ProPubVAP.jsp?dockey=e6f9e66480441fe548dfe78bf2aff 82c)
    TITLE 8 OF CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS (8 CFR): Chapter I -- DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (IMMIGRATION AND NATURALIZATION) (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/ProPubVAP.jsp?dockey=d28c5cb48217d90d388b3ed180f19 96e)

    PART 42�VISAS: DOCUMENTATION OF IMMIGRANTS UNDER THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT, AS AMENDED (http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=d093e437827c75a38a4aaaa26e9b13b3&rgn=div8&view=text&node=22:1.0.1.5.28.6.1.1&idno=22), Subpart F�Numerical Controls and Priority Dates
    Adjudicator's Field Manual - Redacted Public Version (http://www.uscis.gov/propub/ProPubVAP.jsp?dockey=724ce55f1a60168e48ce159d28615 0e2) Updated Through June 18, 2007, Posted July, 2007
    AFM Update: Chapter 22: Employment-based Petitions (AD03-01) (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=136&d=1184796132)
    Transferring Section 245 Adjustment Applications to New or Subsequent Family or Employment-Based Visa Petitions (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=137&d=1184797399)
    I-485 Standard Operating Procedure (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=138&d=1184798238)
    Interim Guidance for Processing Form I-140 Employment-Based Immigrant Petitions and Form I-485 and H-1B Petitions Affected by the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act of 2000 (AC21) (Public Law 106-313) (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=139&d=1184798248)

    Revised Interview Waiver Criteria for Form I-485 Application to Register permanent residence or adjust status (http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=142&d=1184798393)



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  • sanju
    12-17 03:08 PM
    This is exactly I hate. To divert focus of terrorism to Hindu group, Muslim leader comes out - WOW!

    Sounds like LeT informed Hindu group in advance that they are going to attack so as a by-product they can kill Karkare. Ha ha ha.

    Times Of India Headline: Antulay raises doubts over Karkare's killing

    Marphad,

    In the recent past, I expressed my views about the same subject on this forum. I was very angry with what happened in Mumbai. The desire to fix the wrong has not faded, but now that I look back, I regret some of the things I said at that time. My comments did not do any good and some of the coments offend few others on this forum. Those who felt offended by my comments are just as entitled to these forums as I am. I am not trying to be politically correct, just trying to say that it doesn't serves any purpose to discuss this issue on IV fourms.

    Branding all people from a specific faith doesn't help in anyways. For too long men have fought because of religion and each such time was avoidable.

    I do have a suggestion. To get some perspective, I suggest you watch the bollywood movie "New York", although I am not a big fan of bollywood movies.

    Peace.


    .




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  • Macaca
    07-08 06:54 PM
    In approving another h-4 visa; they askd h-1b person why they didn't get paid for three month when they entered USA. Company president along with h-1b beneficiary said that he had to climitize himself and then it took a while to get the social security number. Once he got it then he got paid. Visa officer laughed at the explanation and gave the h-4 visa. Six months later; company gets a DOL audit request for possible h-1b violations. DOL officer said that consulate sent them notification that there was h-1b violations.

    Must an H-1B alien be working at all times? (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a62bec897643f010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

    As long as the employer/employee relationship exists, an H-1B alien is still in status. An H-1B alien may work in full or part-time employment and remain in status. An H-1B alien may also be on vacation, sick/maternity/paternity leave, on strike, or otherwise inactive without affecting his or her status.




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  • gc_aspirant_prasad
    09-26 08:47 AM
    I know it may be for the greater good to see Prez Obama in the white house.
    However, I am fairly confident that the condition of Employment Based immigrants - people facing years & years of retrogression will be a sorry one.
    As much as I would love to be part of this American experiment, I have to think of stability.
    Under Prez Obama if Sen Durbin & his friends revive CIR 2007 type discussions it is end of the road for folks like me waiting for over 5 years for the US GC.
    It would be wise to move to Canada or Australia / New Zealand for most of the EB folks where we can have the stability and freedom to be all that we can be and do all that we can do.
    I have exercised my personal preference for the Big White North & have already applied for the Permanent Residence in Canada. I am also in talks with angel investors in Ottawa such that I can incorporate & start a product development outfit up there.




    wantgc23
    08-11 07:55 PM
    really good thread




    engineer
    01-03 12:31 AM
    Writer, Shuja Nawaz
    http://www.shujanawaz.com/index.php?mod=about


    Brinksmanship in South Asia: A Dangerous Scenario
    December 26, 2008 10:32 | PERMALINK (http://www.shujanawaz.com/blog/brinksmanship-in-south-asia-a-dangerous-scenario)
    Reports of military movement to the India-Pakistan border must raise alarums in Washington DC. The last thing that the incoming Obama administration wants is a firestorm in South Asia. There cannot be a limited war in the subcontinent, given the imbalance of forces between India and Pakistan. Any Indian attack across the border into Pakistan will likely be met with a full scale response from Pakistan. Yet, the rhetoric that seemed to have cooled down after the immediate aftermath of the Mumbai attacks is rising again. It was exactly this kind of aggressive posturing and public statements that led to the 1971 conflict between these two neighbors. Pakistan has relied in the past on international intervention to prevent war. It worked, except in 1971 when the US and other powers let India invade East Pakistan and lead to the birth of Bangladesh. What makes the current situation especially dangerous is that both are now nuclear weapon states with anywhere up to150 nuclear bombs in their arsenal. If India and Pakistan go to war, the world will lose. Big time. By putting conventional military pressure on Pakistan, is India calling what it perceives to be Pakistan�s bluff under the belief that the United Sates will force nuclear restraint on Pakistan?
    The early evidence after the Mumbai terrorist attack pointed to the absence of the Pakistan government�s involvement in the attack. Indeed, the government of Pakistan seemed to bend over backwards to accommodate and understand Indian anger at the tragedy. But, in the weeks since then, as domestic political pressure mounted on the Indian government to do more, talk has turned to the use of surgical strikes or other means to teach Pakistan a lesson. It was in India�s own interest to strengthen the ability of the fledgling civilian government of Pakistan to move against the militancy within the country. But it seems to have opted for threats to attack Pakistan, threats that, if followed up by actions, may well derail the process of civilianization and democratization in that country. India must recognize the constraints under which Pakistan operates. It cannot fight on two fronts. And it lacks the geographic depth to take the risk of leaving its eastern borders undefended at a time when India has been practicing its emerging Cold Start strategy in the border opposite Kasur. Under this strategy, up to four Integrated Battle Groups could move rapidly across the border and occupy a strategic chunk of Pakistani territory up to the outskirts of Lahore in a �limited war�.
    For Pakistan, there is no concept of �limited war�. Any war with India is seen as a total war, for survival. It risks losing everything the moment India crosses its border, and will likely react by attacking India in force at a point of its own choosing under its own Offensive-Defensive strategy. (That is probably why it is moving some of its Strike Force infantry divisions back from the Afghan border to the Indian one.) As the battles escalate, Indian�s numerical and weapon superiority will become critical. If no external intervention takes place quickly, Pakistan will then be left with the �poison pill� defence of its nuclear weapons.
    The consequences of such action are unimaginable for both countries and the world...
    The NRDC (Natural Resources Defense Council) conducted an analysis of the consequences of nuclear war in South Asia a year before the last stand-off in 2002. Under two scenarios, one (with a Princeton University team) studied the results of five air bursts over each country�s major cities and the other (done by the NRDC alone) with 24 ground explosions. The results were horrifying to say the least: 2.8 million dead, 1.5 million seriously injured, and 3.4 million slightly injured in the first case. Under the second scenario involving an Indian nuclear attack on eight major Pakistani cities and Pakistan�s attack on seven major Indian cities:
    NRDC calculated that 22.1 million people in India and Pakistan would be exposed to lethal radiation doses of 600 rem or more in the first two days after the attack. Another 8 million people would receive a radiation dose of 100 to 600 rem, causing severe radiation sickness and potentially death, especially for the very young, old or infirm. NRDC calculates that as many as 30 million people would be threatened by the fallout from the attack, roughly divided between the two countries.
    Besides fallout, blast and fire would cause substantial destruction within roughly a mile-and-a-half of the bomb craters. NRDC estimates that 8.1 million people live within this radius of destruction.
    Studies by Richard Turco, Alan Robock, and Brian Toon in 2006 and 2008 on the climate change impact of a regional nuclear war between these two South Asian rivals, were based on the use of 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear devices of 15 kiloton each. The ensuing nuclear explosions would set 15 major cities in the subcontinent on fire and hurl five million tonnes of soot 80 kilometers into the air. This would deplete ozone levels in the atmosphere up to 40 per cent in the mid-latitudes that �could have huge effects on human health and on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems.� More important, the smoke and sot would cool the northern hemisphere by several degrees, disrupting the climate (shortening growing seasons, etc.) and creating massive agricultural failure for several years. The whole world would suffer the consequences.
    An Indo-Pakistan war will not cure the cancer of religious militancy that afflicts both countries today. Rather, India and Pakistan risk jeopardizing not only their own economic futures but also that of the world by talking themselves into a conflict. The world cannot afford to let that happen. The Indian and Pakistani governments can step back from the brink by withdrawing their forces from their common border and going back to quiet diplomacy to resolve their differences. The United States and other friends of both countries can act as honest brokers by publicly urging both to do just that before this simmering feud starts to boil over.
    This piece appeared in The Huffington Post, 26 December 2008 (http://www.shujanawaz.com//)



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